Tomorrow is the Alberta 'referendumb' I wrote about previously. It is an exercise in pandering, gaslighting and excretable leadership; a $136M poll and unpopularity contest designed to distract from the CorruptCare scandal, the rebellion within Danielle Smith's caucus and a barely-msaked and racist attempt to scapegoat current terrible conditions on immigrants (that the premier explicitly requested) instead of on UCP mismanagement.
Our household (and most of the people we know) requested special ballots that we mailed in and confirmed receipt or over a week ago, but the advance polls are busy. Elections Alberta at one point said that if the pace continued from peak, we could be looking at maybe 80% participation, but liekly clsoer to 70%. Given that the 2023 provincial election didn't reach 61%, this is pretty impressive for our generally apathetic province.
Polling numbers for the separacists (sic) have never looked great, and the rallies held by both them and the Forever Canadian group heavily favoured the "remain in Canada" side.
The disheartening thought now is the repeated message that the Alberta Independence movement is unlikely to go away, even if they do miserably in this nonsensical "vote on a chance to vote" referendum. Their hopes at this point seem to hinge on vaguely disgruntled folks who have bought into their misinformation and who do not want to separate, but agree that "sending Ottawa a message" could have some use.
Yeah, it will be extremely useful to the Manifest Destiny knows in the U.S., agitators in Russia and greedy oligarchs and tech bros eager to plunder Alberta resources in an even more corporate-friendly and deregulated Alberta.
But the indefatigability of the seppies, normally a cherished characteristic, is wholly frustrating in this context. As long as separatism is allowed (or in the case of the UCP, a party currently teeming with separatists, encouraged) to fester, uncertainty will dominate. Investors are unlikely to bring money or business into the province. Doctors, healthcare workers and teachers are likely to look elsewhere for work.
But their selfishness and irrationality ensure the separatists care not a whit for these consequences so long as their pipe dream of independence from Ottawa is indulged. And to that end, I fully expect that whenever the final vote is tallied (by hand, because the conspiracy-addled luddites in the UCP banned tabulation machines) and regardless of how damaging the vote may or may not be for them, they are going to declare victory anyways.
My predictions are:
Anything less than the 16% polling for Alberta independence earlier this year will be hailed as "a moral victory in the face of biased media coverage and a flawed referendum question and process."
Results of 16-20% pro-separatism will be characterized as "an upswell that we can capitalize on next time when we are not held back by current UCP leadership" (brrr).
And heaven forbid, if there is a turnout collapse tomorrow and they get 21-33% support for a binding referendum on some future date, they will be ecstatic.
Please note that no scenario at this point foresees the seppies getting more than 1 in 3 votes regardless of other factors. As a result, there is no likelihood of a majority and a future binding referendum that has the potential to actually break up Confederation and set up years of legal wrangling over the treaty implications with Alberta First Nations.
So what happens then? It is tough - no, impossible -to say with any certainty since we are already in uncharted territory. This nonsense should never have been allowed to progress this far.
In a perfect world, the UCP would clean house, driving the seppies out of caucus, making them sit as independents until they could form a legit separatist party and field a slate of candidates. It turns out compromising a supposedly loyalist, federalist party from within is a much easier say to set the tone for separation, as opposed to the way, say, the Parti Quebecois had to do it. (And this was all enabled by former premier Jason Kenney by the way, reuniting the fractured small-c conservatives of the Progressive Conservatives and "lake of fire" Wild Rose Party, and who was chased out of the party he created for not sufficiently pandering to the Christian Nationalist/ independence minded elements.)
But Premier Danielle Smith has a tiger by the tail. She is beholden to two major stakeholders now: the separacists and ChristoFascists who voted in her into the premier's seat on the narrowest of mandates (and only after six interminable rounds of balloting), and the oil and gas companies who fund the party and her own election hopes. Small c-conservatives who don't actually believe trans folk are destroying society and just want to pay less taxes and see a smaller government? They don't really have much of a forum.
And everyone else in Alberta who hates the Premier's use of the notwithstanding clause to put striking teachers back to work? Who think carving up a world-recognized public health system into four separate branches with its own leadership is completely unsound? Who resent all the clawbacks and damage done to disabled and severely handicapped Albertans? Who are still waiting for any kind of investigation or inquiry into CorruptCare and the party's relationship with sketchy businessman Sam Mraiche?
Yeah, they have even less of a voice.
There is a non-zero chance of Dani getting turfed by her own party, the way almost every Tory leader meets their end in Alberta, but the rest of us won't get a chance to vote on Alberta's future until sometime next year.
Or maybe the referendumb is what finally splits a divided party held together with baling twine and desperation as opposed to jointly held policies and ideals. One can but hope!
But! One problem at a time, eh? Let's sort out this separatist nonsense first. When they don't quit, maybe they will end up hanging around the neck of the UCP, the worst thing to hit Alberta since the damned Spanish Flu, and give the NDP a fighting chance at deposing them.
I don't how you win against a side that refuses to acknowldge defeat, but establishing a rejection of separatism in tomorrow's referendum will be a good start, regardless.
































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